The Strategy of Technology

<body stylesrc="sot_intro.htm" bgcolor="#FFFFFF" link="#0000FF" vlink="#800080">  <h1 align="center">THE STRATEGY OF TECHNOLOGY</h1> <p align="center"><strong>by<br> Stefan T. Possony, Ph.D.; Jerry E. Pournelle, Ph.D. and<br> Col. Francis X. Kane, Ph.D. (USAF Ret.)</strong></p> <h6>First Edition, Copyright © 1970, Stefan T. Possony and Jerry Pournelle.<br> Electronic Edition, Copyright © 1997, Jerry E. Pournelle<br> Electronic Edition, prepared by WebWrights<br> <a href="http://www.jerrypournelle.com">http://www.jerrypournelle.com</a></h6> <p align="center"><img src="line5.gif" WIDTH="625" HEIGHT="12"></p> <blockquote> <p><strong>You may think of this edition of this book as a form of shareware. If you find it useful, please send one dollar  a bill will doto </strong></p> <p><strong>J. E. Pournelle, STRATEGY OF TECHNOLOGY<br> 12358 Ventura Blvd.<br> Box 372 <br> Studio City, California, 91604. </strong></p> <p><strong>Enclose any comments you like. Ill see that Dr. Possonys widow gets his share.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p align="center"><img src="line5.gif" WIDTH="625" HEIGHT="12"></p> <p>"A gigantic technological race is in progress between interception and penetration and each time capacity for interception makes progress it is answered by a new advance in capacity for penetration. Thus a new form of strategy is developing in peacetime, a strategy of which the phrase arms race used prior to the old great conflicts is hardly more than a faint reflection.</p> <p>There are no battles in this strategy; each side is merely trying to outdo in performance the equipment of the other. It has been termed logistic strategy. Its tactics are industrial, technical, and financial. It is a form of indirect attrition; instead of destroying enemy resources, its object is to make them obsolete, thereby forcing on him an enormous expenditure.</p> <p>A silent and apparently peaceful war is therefore in progress, but it could well <i>be a war which of itself could be decisive</i>."<br> --General dArmee Andre Beaufre</p> <hr> <h3 align="center">Preface to the Electronic Edition 1997</h3> <p>That quotation opened the original edition of this book; it was clearly prophetic.</p> <p>This book was originally written in 1968 to 1970, a time when the Cold War was real and the outcome still very much in doubt; it will be recalled that Nixons Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, convinced that the Cold War was lost, hoped to negotiate détente and come to terms with Soviet International communism; and it was widely assumed in 1975 that the United States had been dealt a major defeat in Viet Nam.</p> <p>In 1991, just before the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Seventy Years War, we attempted to edit this work into a form suitable for publication in an electronic medium. This was well before the popularity of the world wide web, and before electronic publishing tools were readily available.</p> <p>The end of the Seventy Years War brought other problems. The senior author, Dr. Stefan Possony, lived to see the victory which he had done so much to bring about, but died shortly after the collapse of international communism. Dr. Kane and Dr. Pournelle were involved in the development of the space program, and particularly the renewal of the X projects which had been canceled by McNamara in the name of Arms Control (because they were so successful at generating new military technology. New technology wasnt wanted by those enamoured of Arms Control strategies.)</p> <p>For those and other reasons, this book languished for six years with little or no work done.</p> <p>A generation of students used this book, but a new generation cant find it; the copies still in use in the War College are Xeroxes, the book long being out of print. Meanwhile, new threats loom on the horizon. The Seventy Years War is over; the Technological War continues relentlessly. It is possible that this book is needed now more than ever.</p> <p>Most of the examples in this book were chosen for their impact on thoughts about the Cold War and the threat of Soviet communism. They are now historical rather than current, and a proper revision of this book would use examples from current threats; alas we havent time to do that; nor have we time to do a proper chapter on space and space weapons. You will find THOR and SDI in these pages, but they arent given their proper emphasis. No matter. The principles in this book remain as true today as when they were written; we find little that needs explaining, and nothing that requires an apology.</p> <blockquote> <p>Jerry Pournelle<br> Studio City, California 1997</p> </blockquote> <p><img src="line5.gif" WIDTH="625" HEIGHT="12"></p> <h3 align="center">Preface to the Electronic Edition 1991</h3> <p>When this book was originally published, the Cold War was very real. The United States was winding down the agony of Viet Nam, and one heard calls for "one, two, three, many Viet Nams" to bring the United States to her knees.</p> <p>The threat of nuclear war was quite real, although it was not everywhere taken quite as seriously as it should have been.</p> <p>The Soviet Union was not seen as an evil empire, but as the representative of the wave of the future.</p> <p>The result was that the early portion of the book was devoted to convincing the readers that the threat was real, and imparting an understanding of the nature of that threat. That was needed then. It is less needed now; yet some of the early material also introduces the concepts of strategic analysis and the technological war, and those concepts are vital to understanding the principles we try to explain in this book.</p> <p>A full rewrite of <em>STRATEGY OF TECHNOLOGY</em> would go through and pare away those portions written to respond to the threat of the 70's and would add new examples and analyses to fit the threat of the 90's. Alas, we have not time to do this; our choices are a 'quick fix' or not to publish for some years.</p> <p>[That paragraph was itself written in 1991; what we did then was essentially nothing. It is clearly time to get this published in electronic form, whatever else we do.]</p> <p><em>STRATEGY OF TECHNOLOGY</em> was a textbook in the Service Academies for several years, and off and on has been a textbook in the Air and National Defense War Colleges. We have reason to believe that its arguments were useful in bringing about adoption of a high tech strategy for the US Armed Forces. That such a strategy was adopted is self evident from the victory in Iraq and the collapse of the Soviet empire. How much was due to this book can be debated, but we can at least claim that this book explains the principles of technological strategy.</p> <p>Some day we will revise the examples. However, the principles haven't changed, and the rapid changes in the Soviet Union as well as the Iraq victory can be explained as consequences of an earlier victory in the 'silent and apparently peaceful conflict which may be decisive' which we called The Technological War.</p> <p>From time to time we have inserted comments made at times later than the first publication. Those are marked with brackets and dated. We find we haven't had to do much revision of the book, and none of the principles espoused needed changing. We have pointed up new examples of the application of those principles.</p> <p>Portions of this revised text have from time to time been published in different volumes of <strong><i>THERE WILL BE WAR</i></strong>, an anthology series edited by Jerry Pournelle.</p> <p align="center"><a name="Contents"><img src="line5.gif" WIDTH="625" HEIGHT="12"></a></p> <h3 align="center">Contents</h3> <h5 align="center"><img src="line5.gif" WIDTH="625" HEIGHT="12"></h5> <blockquote> <h5><strong>You may think of this edition of this book as a form of shareware. If you find it useful, please send one dollar  a bill will doto </strong></h5> </blockquote> <blockquote> <blockquote> <h5><strong>J. E. Pournelle, STRATEGY OF TECHNOLOGY<br> 12358 Ventura Blvd.<br> Box 372 <br> Studio City, California, 91604. </strong></h5> </blockquote> </blockquote> <blockquote> <h5><strong>Enclose any comments you like. Ill see that Dr. Possonys widow gets his share.</strong></h5> </blockquote> <hr> <p><strong><a href="sot_1.htm"><font color="#0000FF"><u>Chapter One</u></font></a> - The Technological War</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_1.htm#Definition of Technological Warfare"><font size="2">Definition of Technological Warfare</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_1.htm#Foundations of the Technological War"><font size="2">Foundations of the Technological War</font></a><font size="2"> - Fundamentals of Technological Strategy<br> </font><a href="sot_1.htm#Dimensions of the Technological War"><font size="2">Dimensions of the Technological War</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_1.htm#An Overview of the Nature of Technology"><font size="2">An Overview of the Nature of Technology<br> </font></a><a href="sot_1.htm#The Decisive War"><font size="2">The Decisive War<br> </font></a><a href="sot_1.htm#The Elements of Strategy"><font size="2">The Elements of Strategy</font></a><font size="2"> - What is Strategy?<br> </font><a href="sot_1.htm#The Principles of War"><font size="2">The Principles of War<br> </font></a><a href="sot_1.htm#Strategy and Technology"><font size="2">Strategy and Technology<br> </font></a><a href="sot_1.htm#1988"><font size="2">1988</font></a></p> </blockquote> <p><strong><a href="sot_2.htm"><font color="#0000FF"><u>Chapter Two</u></font></a> - An Overview Of The Recent History of the Technological War</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_2.htm#Organization of This Chapter"><font size="2">Organization of This Chapter</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Soviet Technological Strategy"><font size="2">Soviet Technological Strategy</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#The U.S. Conduct of the Technological War"><font size="2">The U.S. Conduct of the Technological War</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#The 1950 Era"><font size="2">The 1950 Era</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#The Nuclear Powered Airplane"><font size="2">The Nuclear Powered Airplane</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#The ICBM"><font size="2">The ICBM</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#SLBM"><font size="2">SLBM</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#The 1960 Era"><font size="2">The 1960 Era</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#Apollo"><font size="2">Apollo</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#Military Aircraft"><font size="2">Military Aircraft</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#The 1970 Era"><font size="2">The 1970 Era</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#MIRV"><font size="2">MIRV</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#SHUTTLE"><font size="2">SHUTTLE</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#The 1980 Era"><font size="2">The 1980 Era</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#B-1"><font size="2">B-1</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font>   <a href="sot_2.htm#SDI"><font size="2">SDI</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#The Present Assumptions Governing U.S. Conduct of the Technological War"><font size="2">The Present Assumptions Governing U.S. Conduct of the Technological War</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#The Abandonment of the Initiative"><font size="2">The Abandonment of the Initiative</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Surprise"><font size="2">Surprise</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Science Is No Substitute for Military Judgment"><font size="2">Science Is No Substitute for Military Judgment</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Systems Analysis and Military Decisions: The TFX (1970)"><font size="2">Systems Analysis and Military Decisions: The TFX (1970)</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#The Limits of Scientific Military Analysis"><font size="2">The Limits of Scientific Military Analysis</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Other Fallacies"><font size="2">Other Fallacies</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Technological Process"><font size="2">Technological Process</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Centralized Decisions"><font size="2">Centralized Decisions</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Small Advantages"><font size="2">Small Advantages</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Symmetry of Motives"><font size="2">Symmetry of Motives</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Overkill"><font size="2">Overkill</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#Fear of Obsolescence"><font size="2">Fear of Obsolescence</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#We Don't Need to Do Anything"><font size="2">We Don't Need to Do Anything</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_2.htm#An Illustrative Case History:"><font size="2">An Illustrative Case History:</font></a><font size="2"> GPS NAVSTAR:<i> </i>The Revolution 25 Years in the Making</font></p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_2note.htm"><font size="2">Dr. Kane's Notes on Chapter 2</font></a></p> </blockquote> <p><strong><a href="sot_3.htm"><font color="#0000FF"><u>Chapter 3</u></font></a> -The Nature of the Technological Process</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_3.htm#U.S. Policies and Technological Progress"><font size="2">U.S.<i> </i>Policies and Technological Progress</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_3.htm#Technology and the Economic Base"><font size="2">Technology and the Economic Base</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_3.htm#The Technological War General"><font size="2">The Technological War General</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_3.htm#Conclusion"><font size="2">Conclusion</font></a></p> </blockquote> <p><strong><a href="sot_4.htm"><font color="#0000FF"><u>Chapter 4</u></font></a> - Strategic Analysis</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_4.htm#Note to the Second Edition:"><font size="2">Note to the Second Edition:</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#The Creation of Technological Strategy"><font size="2">The Creation of Technological Strategy</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#The Elements of Technological Strategy: An Overview"><font size="2">The Elements of Technological Strategy: An Overview</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#The Creation of Military Technology"><font size="2">The Creation of Military Technology</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Phase One"><font size="2">Phase One</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#MIRV: An Historical Example"><font size="2">MIRV: An Historical Example</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Phase Two"><font size="2">Phase Two</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Phase Three"><font size="2">Phase Three</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Leadership in Technological Warfare"><font size="2">Leadership in Technological Warfare</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Political Decision Makers"><font size="2">Political Decision Makers</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Budget"><font size="2">Budget</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Intelligence"><font size="2">Intelligence</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Strategists"><font size="2">Strategists</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Military Operations Specialists"><font size="2">Military Operations Specialists</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Scientists"><font size="2">Scientists</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Engineering and Development"><font size="2">Engineering and Development</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Procurement and Production"><font size="2">Procurement and Production</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Nonmilitary Warfare"><font size="2">Nonmilitary Warfare</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Systems Analysis"><font size="2">Systems Analysis</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_4.htm#Strategic Analysis"><font size="2">Strategic Analysis</font></a></p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_4note.htm"><font size="2">Dr. Kane's Notes on Chapter 4</font></a></p> </blockquote> <p><strong><a href="sot_5.htm"><font color="#0000FF"><u>Chapter 5</u></font></a> - Surprise</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_5.htm#The Sneak Attack"><font size="2">The Sneak Attack</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Strategic Surprise"><font size="2">Strategic Surprise</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Tactical Surprise"><font size="2">Tactical Surprise</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Strategic Surprise through Operational Surprise"><font size="2">Strategic Surprise through Operational Surprise</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Technology and Surprise"><font size="2">Technology and Surprise</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Stratagems to Achieve Surprise"><font size="2">Stratagems to Achieve Surprise</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#The Basic Purpose of Surprise"><font size="2">The Basic Purpose of Surprise</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Historical Examples"><font size="2">Historical Examples</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Breakthroughs"><font size="2">Breakthroughs</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Exploitation of Surprise"><font size="2">Exploitation of Surprise</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_5.htm#Conclusion"><font size="2">Conclusion</font></a></p> </blockquote> <p><strong><a href="sot_6.htm"><font color="#0000FF"><u>Chapter 6</u></font></a> - Assured Survival</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_6.htm#Introduction"><font size="2">Introduction</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Assured Destruction"><font size="2">Assured Destruction</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Soviet Strategic Doctrine"><font size="2">Soviet Strategic Doctrine</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Requirements of Assured Survival"><font size="2">Requirements of Assured Survival</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#The Case Against Active Defense"><font size="2">The Case Against Active Defense</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Discussion"><font size="2">Discussion</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#The Case for a New Strategy"><font size="2">The Case for a New Strategy</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#The Technology of Active Defense"><font size="2">The Technology of Active Defense</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#The Nature of the Threat"><font size="2">The Nature of the Threat</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Defense Problems"><font size="2">Defense Problems</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#The ABM Problem"><font size="2">The ABM Problem</font></a></p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_6.htm#Boost Phase"><font size="2">Boost Phase</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Post-Boost"><font size="2">Post-Boost</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Midcourse"><font size="2">Midcourse</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Reentry or Terminal Phase"><font size="2">Reentry or Terminal Phase</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Interception Possibilities"><font size="2">Interception Possibilities</font></a></p> </blockquote> </blockquote> <blockquote> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_6.htm#Passive Defense"><font size="2">Passive Defense</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Laser Weapon Systems"><font size="2">Laser Weapon Systems</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#What Kind of Defense"><font size="2">What Kind of Defense</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_6.htm#Survival"><font size="2">Survival</font></a></p> </blockquote> </blockquote> <p><strong><a href="sot_7.htm"><font color="#0000FF"><u>Chapter 7</u></font></a> - The Nuclear Technology Race</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_7.htm#FOREWORD: 1988"><font size="2">Foreword: 1988</font></a><font size="2"> <br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#The Applications Effort"><font size="2">The Applications Effort</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#The Basic and Continuing Role: Deterring War"><font size="2">The Basic and Continuing Role: Deterring War</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#The Initiative"><font size="2">The Initiative</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#The Shape of Things To Come: The Baruch Plan"><font size="2">The Shape of Things To Come: The Baruch Plan</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#The Second Ploy: The Test Ban"><font size="2">The Second Ploy: The Test Ban</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#The Test-ban Strategy"><font size="2">The Test-ban Strategy</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#Another Strategic Failure"><font size="2">Another Strategic Failure</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#Yield-to-weight Ratio"><font size="2">Yield-to-weight Ratio</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#Nuclear Strategy"><font size="2">Nuclear Strategy</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#History of the Nuclear Race"><font size="2">History of the Nuclear Race</font></a><font size="2"> : Nuclear Research Requirements<br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#The Impediments to Nuclear Research"><font size="2">The Impediments to Nuclear Research</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_7.htm#Conclusion"><font size="2">Conclusion</font></a></p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_7note.htm"><font size="2">Dr. Kane's Notes on Chapter 7</font></a></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Chapter 8 - What Kind of War Is This?</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_8.htm#Classification of Conflicts"><font size="2">Classification of Conflicts</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#What Are Small Wars?"><font size="2">What Are Small Wars?</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#Political Correlation of the Forces"><font size="2">Political Correlation of the Forces</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#Correlation of Morale"><font size="2">Correlation of Morale</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#Correlation of Economic Power"><font size="2">Correlation of Economic Power</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#Correlation of Technological Power"><font size="2">Correlation of Technological Power</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#Correlation of Military Power"><font size="2">Correlation of Military Power</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#THE SPECTRUM OF SMALL WARS"><font size="2">The Spectrum of Small Wars</font></a></p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_8.htm#INSURRECTION"><font size="2">Insurrection</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#REBELLION"><font size="2">Rebellion</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#COUP D'ETAT"><font size="2">Coup D'Etat</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#REVOLUTION"><font size="2">Revolution</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#THE REVOLUTION"><font size="2">The Revolution</font></a></p> </blockquote> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_8.htm#Escalation to Centralized War"><font size="2">Escalation to Centralized War</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#The United States and the Future of Small Wars"><font size="2">The United States and the Future of Small Wars</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#U.S. and Small Wars"><font size="2">U.S. and Small Wars</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#World Policeman?"><font size="2">World Policeman?</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#Force Requirements for Small Wars"><font size="2">Force Requirements for Small Wars</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#Small Wars and Escalation"><font size="2">Small Wars and Escalation</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_8.htm#Conclusion"><font size="2">Conclusion</font></a></p> </blockquote> <p><strong><a href="sot_9.htm"><font color="#0000FF"><u>Chapter 9</u></font></a> - The Prevention of War</strong></p> <blockquote> <p><a href="sot_9.htm#Why Wars Are Not Fought"><font size="2">Why Wars Are Not Fought</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_9.htm#The Nature of Strategic Decisions"><font size="2">The Nature of Strategic Decisions</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_9.htm#Offense and Defense"><font size="2">Offense and Defense</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_9.htm#The Modern Strategic War"><font size="2">The Modern Strategic War</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_9.htm#The Effect of Nuclear Weapons"><font size="2">The Effect of Nuclear Weapons</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_9.htm#Force Levels in the Nuclear Era"><font size="2">Force Levels in the Nuclear Era</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_9.htm#Security Through Arms Control"><font size="2">Security Through Arms Control</font></a><font size="2"><br> </font><a href="sot_9.htm#Security in the Modern Era"><font size="2">Security in the Modern Era</font></a></p> </blockquote> <p align="center"><img src="line5.gif" WIDTH="625" HEIGHT="12"></p> <p align="center"><a href="http://www.webwrights.com" target="_new"><img src="weblogo.gif" border="0" WIDTH="217" HEIGHT="36"></a></p> <blockquote> <p> </p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p> </p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p> </p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p> </p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p> </p> </blockquote> <blockquote> <p> </p> </blockquote> <p> </p>  </body>